The Home Secretary’s assertions about Policing……. And resources available

The Home Secretary did the recent Bank Holiday morning media round on national television, demanding that the police follow all reasonable lines of enquiry in detecting crime and investigate all theft offences.

I anticipate that everyone would agree with these sentiments; however, as usual, the devil rests in the detail.

The Home Secretary was responding to recent Home Office statistics detailing that nationally, for the 12 months preceding March 2023, only 4.4% of thefts, 3.9% of burglaries and 1.8% of vehicle thefts resulted in a charge.

When challenged about police resources, the Home Secretary boasted that England and Wales now have record numbers of police officers. This assertion is correct but reminds me of the condemnation regarding lies, damned lies and statistics.

Journalists quickly pointed out that whilst the Home Secretary achieved the target of recruiting an additional 20,000 officers, they were replacing the numbers cut during years of austerity under successive Tory governments since 2010. Then, there is the additional impact of the 24,000 support staff posts lost during the same period.

Journalists could have also challenged the Home Secretary about the record numbers of officers leaving the police service. The accumulated loss of officers since 2010 and the failure to replace them has resulted in an inexperienced workforce.

In July 2023, His Majesty’s Inspectorate reported that forces are increasingly under-resourced and under-skilled and not doing enough to understand why such a large proportion of its workforce is leaving. The National Audit Office predicts that by next year, 38 per cent of all police officers will have less than five years’ experience.

Perhaps they should listen to the Police Federation, who has identified excessive workloads, poor pay and conditions, and low morale as the reason for this exodus. They estimate that a further 30,000 officers are necessary for policing to be effective.

The National Police Chiefs Council has taken a different tack, pointing out that since 2010, officer numbers have increased by 2.6%, but recorded crime has increased by 25%. They also point out that 21 out of 43 forces in England and Wales still have fewer officers than in 2010.

While the national picture seems bleak, understanding how we are faring in Wiltshire is difficult to gauge. The Wiltshire Police website provides ready access to statistics regarding the incidence of crime in local areas. Information about officer numbers, retention and criminal justice outcomes is far more challenging to access.

The Wiltshire Police and Crime Panel is responsible for holding the Police and Crime Commissioner and Chief Constable to account. At their June 2023 meeting, they heard that during the 12 months preceding March 2023, Further Action Taken (FAT) in respect of 13% of all crimes, 6.9% of burglaries, 21.1% of violent crimes and 8.1% of rapes; FAT refers to a charge, caution or penalty notice.

We are fortunate to live in a relatively safe, low-crime area. However, in my view, this level of performance is far from reassuring and does not represent value for money. It bears no resemblance to detection rates back in 2010. The same Police and Crime Panel meeting noted that only 57% of residents have confidence that Wiltshire Police can be relied upon.

Our Chief Constable has made clear that her priorities rest in safer public spaces, violence and burglary. The ambitious work programme commenced under her leadership needs time to deliver. Success will depend on several factors, and not all are within her direct influence.

The Prime Minister never misses an opportunity to remind us of his five priorities. As important as they are to his vision of political success, none relate to tackling crime. Wiltshire Police exceeded its target of recruiting an additional 1,189 officers, but there are concerns about retention and the lack of experience within the ranks.

One commentator has observed that policing has become more preoccupied with demand management rather than criminal justice outcomes. Dame Louise Casey, in her eviscerating report following the murder of Sarah Everard, called for the reform of policing.

There is a clear need for a more robust framework for managing performance, particularly regarding criminal justice outcomes. The risk of being caught must have some deterrent effect. The lack of information available to the public raises a suspicion we are kept in the dark for a reason.

Our Police and Crime Commissioner, together with the Wiltshire Police and Crime Panel, should take note. We rely upon them to support the Chief Constable and ensure we achieve value for money.