Putin can not be trusted. This was the clear message that ran through the entire talk of Martin Sixsmith, experienced journalist and former foreign correspondent. Martin knows Russia and Eastern Europe well, stationed in Moscow whilst at the BBC across the period of Gorbachev and Yeltsin and the fall of the Iron Curtain. Not only did he observe and report the changes in Russia and the Soviet Union, or what emerged from that, he also watched the rise of a younger newcomer – a Vladimir Putin, who then went to become Yeltsin’s Prime Minister for a few months before taking the position of President.
Martin’s book is ‘Putin and the Return of History’. A ‘take’ on or riposte to the title of an essay by Francis Fukuyama in the USA following the demise of the Berlin Wall and effectively, the Soviet Union. This was a celebration of the ‘Triumph of the West’ and the ‘total exhaustion of viable systematic alternatives to Western Liberalism’. Yes, times change.
Martin’s talk discussed Putin and his real motives. He started out almost as a liberal, or appeared to. He was friendly to the West, and even (possibly) was talking about Russia joining (or becoming close to) NATO. So Martin raises the question: was he lying? Or was he being sincere? And if the latter, what happened, what triggered such a radical change?
One consideration is that Putin abhors humiliation and, certain possible ’cause’ events took place even before he assumed the Presidency which sowed the seeds for what we see and experience now. He also, in a 1996 interview referred to the culture of the ‘Strong man’ in Russia, the autocrat, which has been a feature of every Russia since Catherine The Great. In practice, the Russian culture and (western style) democracy don’t seem to gel. So was he bluffing everyone at the start, and this was his plan all along?
Where are we all now? Ukraine. Easy to resolve? No, despite the claims (boasts?) of Donald Trump. Martin and Gerry opened the talk with a video clip of Donald Trump, stating, that if he is elected president in a few weeks time, he will sort out the war in Ukraine, in 24 hrs. Easy. He knows Zelensky and Putin ‘very well’
But the seeds of the current Ukraine confrontation were sown some while back. In 2014 the reaction to the annexation of Crimea was a series of mild sanctions. The 2022 invasion was likely a calculated ploy assuming that similar counter measures would ensue. Also, Martin observed that Putin assumed the Ukraine people would welcome Russian intervention. Most – probably nearly all – speak Russia, many as first language, and as Ukraine government and society was riddled with corruption, Russia would be almost invited in. Apparently some military top brass were recommended (ordered?) to pack dress uniform when invading.
Go back to the fall of the Soviet Union, whilst the West were on the one hand promising that NATO would never come near to Russia, which also claiming that Russia and the Soviet system had been vanquished, and then gradually moving NATO east, into the former Soviet states, then the West and NATO were an active threat to Russia and its independence.
So lots of factors, and lots of influences, but today, Ukraine is where this is seen to play out in the most vicious way. A excellent and insightful talk from a long time experienced expert in this area, more than ably assisted (prompted?) by fellow foreign correspondent Gerry Foley,. A fascinating and very informative look into the motivations one of the world’s ‘devils’, or regarded as such by many in the West. For more, pick up a copy of ‘Putin and the Return of History’, one of the few books that sets out the current position and direction of Putin’s Russia from a rounded position and detailed consideration of the period before, during, after the fall of the Iron Curtain, and to where we are now.
LitFest Reviews: ‘How AI Thinks’ – Nigel Toon
