Surveys made by Caffe Nero experts, which it claims prove it attracts additional visitors to town centres like Marlborough and increases retail trade, are claimed to be totally unreliable.
The data presented to the adjourned hearing of the planning inquiry at Marlborough town hall that will decide the café’s fate was told on Thursday that they amounted to estimates and generalisations open to challenge.
The methodology of Allegra Surveys was revealed to be without any known or accepted margins of error or bias that invalidated its conclusions.
“I am making the accusation of total unreliability,” declared John Kirkman (pictured) , chairman of the Kennet branch of CPRE, after his interrogation of planning consultant Chris Green, the main witness for Caffe Nero Holdings.
Mr Green, whose paper submission of evidence itself weighed five pounds, six ounces, accepted that his statement that an Allegra survey showed that 25 per cent of the visitors to shopping centres was due to the attraction of coffee shops was incorrect.
The 25 per cent figure related to the food industry as a whole, restaurants, pubs and other such establishments.
He also admitted that his statement that there had been a 13 per cent increase in footfall related only to the area adjacent to Caffe Nero and not the whole of the High Street.
It was on this point that Mr Kirkman asked how could any such comparison be made when there were no footfall figures prior to Caffe Nero’s arrival in April last year?
“Your claims are without foundation because we have no pre-Nero data to compare with post-Nero data,” he pointed out.
Mr Green: “That’s not true. Caffe Nero’s attractiveness in its own right is evidence of that.”
Mr Kirkman: “But they may well be people who previously frequented the town centre, not necessarily additional customers.”
One earlier witness had said specifically that he came to Marlborough to visit Caffe Nero while another, who made the same statement, said there was already a Caffe Nero in his home town of Swindon.
“Yes, Caffe Nero attracts customers bit you have no evidence to show that they are additional,” insisted Mr Kirkman.
Mr Green: “Many people use coffee shops to meet friends and this attracts other people.”
Mr Kirkman. “This is generalisation again, it doesn’t tell us what is happening in Marlborough.”
He also protested that surveys based on five-minute samples of the number of Caffe Nero customers had been “grossed up” and were basically estimates.
Mr Green replied that the coffee shop’s retail receipts provided an accurate figure until accepting the answer of Mr Kirkman, who himself sat inside the café to see the facts for himself, pointed out that he did not know if a receipt for a coffee and a glass or orange juice referred to one person or two.
“When you gross up counts you introduce a margin or error,” he told Mr Green, who replied: “They survey remains a benchmarking exercise of the situation.”
Mr Kirkman referred to survey counts taken in June and November of customers entering seven adjacent shops, which showed that four had increased their total, which was claimed as proof that Caffe Nero added to the vitality and viability of the town.
“Are we to infer that the presence of Caffe Nero influenced the trade of those seven shops?” he asked.
Mr Green: “Our presence attracts more visitors as a whole, that provides an opportunity for other shops to benefit from that.”
And when pressed further Mr Green said: “We are not suggesting that is the benefit from the influence of Caffe Nero. I am talking about the town centre of Marlborough as a whole.”
There were further clashes over the survey claim that 13 per cent of customers said they would return to Marlborough more that Caffe Nero was there, Mr Kirkman pointing out that industry-accepted standards for marginal errors reduced this to only six per cent, which was another example of the unreliability of the surveys.
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Marlborough is not special after all, says Caffe Nero’s planning expert
It generated more customers than traditional retailers with a high volume of repeat visits and was in no way detrimental to the vitality and viability of the town centre. Thirteen per cent of those interviewed in a Caffe Nero survey stated that they would visit the shopping centre more often because of the presence of Caffe Nero. He pointed out that core local development plans on which Caffe Nero’s retrospective application was rejected were out of date and no longer relevant following the publication of the government’s new planning framework. According to Wiltshire Council data, Marlborough, where Waitrose was the “key anchor”, had lost ground and could be considered to be “struggling.” Mr Green said the closure of the Dash fashion store that occupied the site was evidence of that, its decline taking place despite the fact that a revamp of the shop had taken place. His own evidence was that the heavy reliance on high quality fashion shops, as in some other towns, failed to provide the diversity the shopping centre required and revealed that Marlborough’s number of individual shops was in fact three percentage points below the national average and five percentage points lower than Devizes. “To my mind the individuality of Marlborough is much wider, principally it’s concerned with its environment,” he said, adding: “Marlborough’s retail functions are similar to many other market towns and it is a mistake to consider it is unique or even significantly different to other similar centres. “Marlborough is not that individual in terms of retail, the above average number of clothes shops are at particular risk at this time of ever increasing internet shopping.” |
Planning consultant Chris Green, presenting Caffe Nero’s case, claimed that the coffee house was a destination in its own right, part of the now accepted as an accepted extension of the shopping experience.
In his final submission, James Findlay QC, counsel for Caffe Nero Holdings, said there was no evidence presented to show that its presence had caused any dis-benefit to Marlborough.
“No single shopkeeper has given evidence that his/her trade has been adversely affected,” he told the inspector. “No survey evidence of shopkeepers or footfall put forward to justify the concern as to this alleged phenomenon, which is unsupported by any retail analysis.”
He added: “Ultimately, the council’s case as presented rests on unspecified future harm that is not yet evident which will arise, it is said, because Caffe Nero is simply too attractive and prevents people from journeying to others parts of the town centre – honey potting it might be called.”
“But ay coffee drinker exiting can see almost every location on the other side of the street and that they may wish to visit and will be aware of those on the same side.”
“Moving from Winnie the Pooh and the attractiveness of honey pots to toy-storing venturing to the outer reaches of Marlborough’s town centre is hardly to infinity and beyond.”
“This is a case built upon sand.”
See also:
“Caffe Nero should be applauded for giving potential to an under-used vital site, says estate agent”
“Caffe Nero encouraged customers to sign their petition more than once planning inspector told”
“Caffe Nero’s claims of boosting visitors to Marlborough town centre declared “misleading and unfair”“
“Caffe Nero is ‘the cynical cuckoo sitting in the heart of Marlborough’s successful High Street’“
“Caffe Nero accused of being “parasitic” at major Marlborough planning inquiry into its future“
“Publish online all those companies like Caffe Nero who escape any taxes due, Chancellor is urged“
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