April’s shivers look set to continue into May after months of below average temperatures. So don’t turn off the central heating just yet, advises Marlborough’s weatherman Eric Gilbert.
There have been four months of consecutive mean monthly temperatures below the long-term average, April with minus1.1C, March a shivering at a record minus 3.6C after February at minus1.7C, he reports.
And before that January showing a minus 0.6C cold spell.
“Interestingly, in April there were three days when the usual ‘moderate’ levels for ultra-violet radiation rose to ‘high’, normally experienced during a few days in May, and the Meteorological Office issued a warning for skin exposure,” he told Marlborough News Online.
“The trend over the past 30 years is for the occurrence of air frost to diminish in frequency during May. There were 17 days in the 1990’s, down to six in the 2000’s with none at all in 2011 and just one last year.”
Rainfall in May for the last four years has been below average in contrast to the deluge of 150mm (270 per cent) in 2007. The April 2013 rainfall was 84.6mm, which is 80 per cent of the long-term average.
“Gardeners and farmers will be hoping for at least an average amount in May, to germinate and generate growth in newly sown crops,” he points out.
“Studying the forecast track of the Jet Stream, which dictates so much of our weather, I note that well into May it is projected to be fragmentary with segments too far south for any consistently warm, dry weather.
“The North Sea is expected to be colder than normal for May. So any winds from an easterly quarter will be cool.”
The view of the Meteorological Office is for May to bring temperatures around or just above average but with any clear night skies bringing the occasional overnight ground frost. They forecast – “Probably a good deal of dry and bright weather overall, but some unsettled spells perhaps later in the month.”
We all look for some sunshine, warmth and blue skies now that we are well into spring. In both 2011 and 2012, the mean May temperature was above average so hopefully the trend might continue.
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