Marlborough’s weather station provides its own clear evidence of climate change

Clear evidence exists that climate change is taking place, according to the scientific data and local records kept by Eric Gilbert at the Marlborough weather station he set up in the town in 1984.

The UK’s wettest winter since 1776 is just part of the build up, he reveals in his March report.

“Clear change is evident in the data for Marlborough over the past thirty years, he told Marlborough News Online.  “It is particularly seen in the data for heavy rainfall and temperature.”

And he warned:  “The evidence on what climate change will mean for the future is continually growing.  So we must all, as individuals, nationally and internationally, make changes to our lifestyle.”

He points out that comparing the mean temperatures for both maxima and minima during the spring season, reveals is an almost continuous upward trend.  The mean figure for spring in the 1980s was 7.7degrees centigrade but by 2013 this has now jumped to 8.8 degrees.

“The very cold Spring periods of 1996 and 2013 produced a blip in the trend but a difference of approximately 1.1 degree centigrade is quite significant,” he reports.  “The upward trend becomes stronger moving from March through to May.

“Linked with the temperature results is the occurrence of air frosts.  Breaking down the years since 1990 into five-year groups.  I find that the incidence of the last air frost in Spring, on average, has moved successively backwards from 11th May to 5th May, 16th April and 21st April.

“And the four-year group from 2010 to 2013 has an average of 20th April but, as we are experiencing a mild start to the year, this average is likely to move further backwards.

“There is a similar trend to the first occurrence of an air frost in the autumn.  Using the same five-year groupings the average has moved successively from 22nd September to 9th October, 18th October and 26th October.  The result of the four-year group for 2010 to 2013 has now moved to 4th November.”

Rainfall has equally been much in the news during the last few months, including the flooding in Marlborough.  Warmer air holds more moisture so it is logical to expect rainstorms to show evidence of the change taking place.

“Over the last 30 years there is an increasing trend for the incidence of heavy rain in Marlborough,” adds Mr Gilbert.  “Analysing the data further and breaking it down into groups of heavy rainfall, I find that the daily totals of up to 10mm have increased by seven, 20mm by two and 25mm by one mm.

Not surprisingly, the summer months of July and August show the greatest increase.

“In January and February 2014, my records for monthly rainfall were broken with totals of 219.1mm and 151.6mm respectively.  Daily records were also broken for both these months along with December 2013.”

Indeed, on an international scale the United Nations’ latest report on climate change contains plenty of dire warnings about the adverse impact “human interference with the climate system” is having on everything from sea levels to crop yields to violent conflicts.

The primary message of the study is not for countries to collectively reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.  Instead, the subtext is that  climate change is happening and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future.

As a result, we need to adapt to a warming planet — to minimise the risks and maximize the benefits associated with increasing temperatures — rather than focusing solely on curbing warming in the first place.

And it is businesses and local government, rather than the international community, that can lead the way.

“The really big breakthrough in this report is the new idea of thinking about managing climate change,” says Chris Field, the co-chair of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, adding that governments, companies, and communities are already experimenting with “climate-change adaptation.”

In Europe, according to the IPCC, it’s time to focus on the increased risk of flooding and wildfires.  Some people will profit from beefed-up flood-insurance policies, others will be forced to relocate their homes.